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Economy after Covid-19
The world with a social biasness
BA(HONS)in Economics and politics,
Visva Bharati University.
For the time being, we can assume that there can be two circumstances that can affect the economy in two different ways.
● There is an antidote situation.
● There is no antidote Situation.
More or less it’s pretty hard to write any final conclusions at this moment, when too many things may be yet to happen. But the time is very much right to start any discussion on how we can see the world economy after this pandemic. There are possible consequences of the crisis, including technological shift and a change in the direction and the volumes of trade flow all around the world. I think the impact will be much worse if the situation will walk under no cure situation. However, we could call it as a socially bias economic outbreak. The year 2020 has been a disaster for both consumers and producers no matter what they produce or consume. In fact, in future, it could be more ferocious if the states do not act as a market mechanic. The future circumstances of the pandemic will leed many messages across the world about its positive effect on the environment. Despite the short period reduction in the environmental impact, over the upcoming years, we can expect huge attention for population and environmental issues. Maybe an increase in environmentally oriented costs to maintain or prevent future disasters causing a drop in the standard of living. Consumers will get more conscious about there consumption patterns. So that the world will face a step back from the basic needs as outlined in the Maslow pyramid(Maslow’s hierarchy theory). Income inequality will appear to be increasing in the future and There will be opportunities for countries to come in front with new policies, ideas, implications to build a resilient economy which is both attractive and diversified to global sectors. But meanwhile, for the global society, The economic drama yet to happen.
Border closure, pandemic related lockdowns had brought a disaster for the countries who are dependent on foreign tourist or traders. According to the IMF’s recently released 2020 External Sector Report, Costa Rica, Greece, Morocco, Portugal, and Thailand could be among the hardest hit with losses in tourism proceeds exceeding 3 per cent of GDP.
A country’s current account balance is a measure of its total transactions, which includes but is not limited to trade in goods and services with the rest of the world. For some economies, a drop in tourism (which is considered an export) could have an impact on overall current account balances. Much is still unknown about the pace of tourism recovery in 2020. Peoples’ desire and ability to travel abroad may continue to face headwinds going into 2021 due to the ongoing pandemic, leaving an uncertain outlook for tourism industries in economies both big and small.
This is an alarming crisis with several unfamiliar features that lead us a self-inflicted economic catastrophe as a necessary policy response to contain its spread. A global depression Is here and we all know only optimism won’t slow it down. I am not talking about laagers. In these modern days, the U.S. and most of the world have well built middle-class generation. We have social safety nets that didn’t exist a couple of decades ago. thankfully, that’s also true even for the most developing countries. Most governments today accept a deep economic interdependence among nations created by decades of trade and investment globalization. But those expecting a so-called V-shaped economic recovery, a scenario in which vaccine makers will conquer COVID-19 and everybody go straight back to the working life, or even a smooth and steady longer-term bounce-back like the one that followed the global financial crisis a decade ago, are going to be disappointed. Bangladesh exemplifies the triple blow that many emerging market countries have suffered from COVID19: domestic slowdown caused by the disease and the efforts to contain its spread; a sharp decline in exports, particularly in the ready-made garment sector, and a drop in remittances. Three factors separate a true economic depression from a mere recession. First, the impact is global. Second, it cuts deeper into livelihoods than any recession we’ve faced in our lifetimes And third, its bad effects will remain longer. The situation in the global economy hasn’t been the same for all the countries. A country with high interdependence between trade and self-production system with diversified sources may recover within a certain time. Although most of the developing countries are now following the capitalistic path for an exit point from this current situation. It affects all the country throughout the world including Russia, Japan, India, and almost every one of the western countries. The fault lines between globalisation and uneven development have become more apparent. The economic rivalry between the United States and China, which began a long before the pandemic, will only intensify, the centre of gravity of this rivalry will increasingly shift towards the development of new technology. This rivalry will no longer be limited to the two largest economies in the world. Any rivalry between China and its competitors will make it even more difficult for countries that are economically dependent on China or the U.S. to make their choices. It has actually revealed the vulnerability of the global value of supply chains, for the reason nations will have to prepare for the changing nature of the global economy. For the time being a set of questions are circulating around human existence. Where India and Russia have to make difficult choices regarding their future plans. How is India realising its dream of becoming a $5 trillion economy? Does Russia believe that its economy, based on natural resources, will continue to deliver the desired results at the global level? How realistic is the possibility of a fundamental shift in global economic processes as a result of a pandemic? And what does this mean for multilateral economic institutions?
A key cooking ingredient for poor & rich.
BA(HONS) in Economics and politics.
Visva Bharati University.
My study on onion price hike showed me an inaccurate estimate of supply and demand in Bangladesh onion market which created the Fluctuations. But, is it that easy to elaborate? Estimation of demand and production of onion wrong, the government agencies fail to understand the gravity of the problem had forced the price of this key cooking ingredient up to a record high and hurt consumers. Prices of onion hit highest of all time around Tk 250 - 300 a kg in the final days of last year. Now it seems that there is a problem in „estimates‟ or „perception‟ in the market. If the government statistics in my case study were correct, such a crisis would not have happened. So, either supply of production is over-estimated or demand is underestimated in this case.
The estimate – Government data
It says that the annual domestic demand for onions 24 lakh tonnes and 23.76 lakh tonnes were produced in fiscal 2018-19. and, 30 per cent of the produce gets wasted naturally. Based on the (GOVT) data, there was adequate stock But, this production estimate maintained by the ministry is 25% higher than the estimate of BBS the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the national statistical agency. The BBS estimated that onion production was 18.03 lakh tonnes in the last fiscal year.
With that, If the annual onion import, which is nearly 10 lakh tonnes, is considered, then the discrepancy in estimate becomes very much clear. C A B said annual demand for onion would be around 30 lakh(TN).
Let’s think another way, Consumers are now getting more rational and health conscious so that they are eating more vegetable and less rice. To do so, Demand for onion is rising as people are consuming more and more vegetables by eating less rice. so the market demand is changing. That‟s why the government should revise the estimates of demand and supply of essential commodities.
“The government‟s estimate on the annual domestic demand for onion might be underestimated. The annual demand for the item might be 30-33 lakh tonnes.
It seems that they did not pay adequate attention deriving estimate of demand. They could not understand the gravity of the situation. There might be some sort of complacence among officials and they did not take the issue seriously,” Said Economist Zahid Hussain. Also fueled by the export ban slapped by India. On September 2019, India set the minimum export price to curb its shipments and help bring down soaring prices in the domestic market. Two weeks later, it announced a ban on exports with immediate effect, after extended Monsoon downpours delayed harvests and supplies shrivelled(Newspaper). Is it something new or unpredictable for Bangladesh? The answer is "no". India‟s move to restrict the export of essential commodities like an onion is not new. We had an experience regarding rice in 2008 when India restricted shipments. that caused price jumping in Bangladeshi market. And the lessons were? For faster recovery, we have to keep diversified sources open. Because when it is necessary there have to have a contingency planning in advance. So prediction in terms of balancing the market is very important. In my ongoing study of “Fluctuations in different essential commodities”, I found out that 50% of the market has been destroyed by the political business syndicates. How? Market monitoring does not mean policing. The government should assume the role of a facilitator so that adequate information flows in the market to help the market function properly. Develop a policy and maintain it. Also easing procedures for imports and exports to facilitate faster trade and measures to increase the yield of onions and developing storage facilities to reduce post-harvest loss. We have to develop our national capacity to produce our foods. We will not require imports if we could properly stock and increase yield.
What about the creation of an open database on demand and supply of essential commodities?
A hike in onion price affects the poor. I found no alternative but to monitor the onion market regularly. If Bangladeshi markets largely depended on Indian onion, the government should have followed the onion production trend in India a long time ago and taken steps accordingly. The government should forecast local cultivation and production in the coming seasons and discourage imports so that farmers do not incur losses in the event of ample supply of the perishable. But without collecting the data from the field, It can‟t be done. So, for the communication gap, Farmers hardly get into knowledge about market demand and price. This is where farmers get caught into some corrupted invisible hands.
CASE STORY – Khatunganj (Newspaper)
I have found a case at Khatunganj that describes as follows,“ Some Locals said rotten onion is being thrown away every day here. The onion had been stored by wholesalers who tried to cash in on the high demand for the common kitchen item in Bangladesh”. Onion traders believe that the crop was a little rotten when it entered Bangladesh and decomposed more after being stored in the warehouses. Lots of rotten onions were seen dumped into the canal in Firingi Bazar Bridge Ghat area. Some local youths were seen sorting out the better quality onion from there.
Some newspapers said they were selling the half-rotten onion at Tk 40-50 per kg during that period. There was some good initiative from the Government. For faster export, Taxation was taken off from the onion. This step perhaps cured the moment for a little bit. But, the power of that is something invisible and corrupted played the market. Maybe there is enough stock of onion but they are not being released to the markets. Syndicates of importers and various groups in different areas are causing an unusual hike in onion prices.
सीमांचल म़ें अल्पसंख्यक की बाहुलता को देखते हुए खालिद मुबारक को जदयू से जोड़ा गया है और आगामी विधानसभा में उनकी उम्मीदवारी भी तय है। वहीं प्रदेश महासचिव खालिद मुबारक ने कहा कि नीतीश कुमार व आरसीपी सिंह ने उनके कंधों पर संगठन का अहम दायित्व सौंपा है। सीमांचल में जदयू को मजबूत किया जाएगा।
Science is the well system ise an organised knowledge based on the experimental observation and investigation
Father of science- Aristottle
Science divided into three broad categories
1. social science 2.abstructed science and 3.natural science
Natural science natural science is called biology study of living things is called biology
#father of Biology is Aristottle
term Biology given by Lamark and