Mianwali, Punjab, Pakistan موسم کا حال

khty ho k chup rho k ab batien khatam hain

kh do k tmhen batien krne ka dil ab he nahin

khtay ho k ab jao yahan se hmain yun tng na kro

kh do k tmhen sath nibhanay ki chah ab ha he nhi

khty ho k ab tmhara mera sath ikhtitam ko puhncha

kh do k jo pal sath bitaey hn wo kbhi yad aeyngy nhi

khty ho k ye silsila e muhabbat dagdar hai jhoot hai

kh do k bss tmhen hmaari muhabaat ka aitbar he nhi

khty ho k apna payar dil anaayatain dfnaa chukay ho ab

ye kion nhi khty k hm se taluq nibhanay ki koi wja he nhi

khty ho k hm ne dukh dia aur tora hai tmharay dil ko

tora jo hm ne hai tou ab kya hum isay jorain b nahin

khty hain hm tmhen k ab jao aur sath chor do hmara

kionk ye maloom hai k tere bina hm jiyengy b nahin

ma keh dun k jeenay ki koi khawish nhi hai ab iss dil ko hasnaat

ye kesay kahun k tum bin ksshi ki bchi ab zindagi bhe nahin

tm khty they k janaan tere bina jeenay ka tsawwar he nhi

aj hmari 2 se zada batien krne pe pass rhny detay b nahin?

tum keh do k jao chor char k sb kch chli jao

kesay kahun k tm bin ik pl guzrta he nahin?

wo tmhara bar bar whtsapp se janay k liay plz plz khna?

qssam se jan jao k ks qdr drd hota hai tou kbhi kahogy nhi

ma pagal the jo teri hr bat ko sch maan lia ma ne

qasam Khuda ki jhooti meri muhabbat bhe nahin

tou khta tha k ajkl bss tuu he tu hai kssshiii

aaj ka tou dikhta ha lakin kal ka pta he nahin

chl aaj ye ma khud se kh dun k tu sch tera hr wada sch

shayd k tere waadun ma kisi kl ka koi waada he nahin

tu jan le k kis qadar dil ko aarzoo hai teri

tu jan le k kis qadar dil ko tarap hai teri

tu jan le k ks qadar abkhen roi hn tere liay

tu jan le k ks qadar payaar hai mjhy tm se

qasam se tu kbhi mjhy chor kr jaeyga nhi

tjh se milnay k liay kahin manatain maangi hain hasnaat

tere na milnay se wo mntain kbhi poori hongi nahin

meri hr bat jhooti hr afsana hr khwab jhoota

mgr ae janaan schi teri bhe herr baat nahin

meri roodad ma agrcha zoq e sukhan bht km hai jaanan

teri hr bat khnay pe muhabt se jagi writer ab jagegi nhi

ma maanti hun k meri muhabt chnd lfzun ki muhtaj nhi hny

alfaz khtm jzbat khtm mgr dil se kbhi muhbt khtm ho gi nhi

tm khtay ho k muhabbat k bina insan shair nhi kh skta

mjhy kion lgta hai merr shayri ki ab koi haisiat he nhi

ma kitna likhun kitna likhun k teri yaad na aey mjhay

ma kya krun k meri aankhen tjyy yad k kr roein b nahin

aansso nhi hain ....teri pyaari yadun ki brsaat hai ye

lkn drti hun k ma in ma beh kr ta umr kho na jaun kahin

teri yaadein dil ko sukoon se rhany nhi deti hasnaat

mere in drdun ka ilaaj kiay bgair tu kahin jana nahin

kis munh se tjhy rokun teri shaan ma kch kahun

kionk ab ma shyd teri minnat krne k qabil b nhi

tm khty ho k hmari batun ne tmhen ktny din tk rulaya

ab tumhari yadun ma kya hm umr bhr royengy nahin

smjh nahin ati k fqt Allah se ab zindagi mangun ya phir mout

tu apne sath rkhna nhi chahta ma tere bgair reh skti he nahin

mere zoq ma zrf ma kmi ho gi shyad hasnaat

lkn teri batun ko dimagh se kbbi socha he nhi

tm jo khty ho k jb milna nhi tou iss bat ka faida kya hai

maloom hmain zindagi ki shaam honay ka bhe nahin

drr si gae ma aaj jb dekha ma ne ainay ma khud ko

ye thaan lia k tere bin ab ainay ma dekhungi he nhi

aina b wohi jo zahri rang ko dikhata hai shayd

kionk kisi drd ko dikhnay wala aina bna b nahin

syaanay khty hain k dil b ak ainaa hai srtaaj

lakn uss ainay ko sahi se shyd dekha he nhi

dekh leta tou saaf nhi aks tou nzar aa jata hmara

lakin shayd tjh ma ye bat krne ka hosla he nahin

na phly na ab ma magti hun tjh se kch b jaan

lkn apni duano ma ab tou mjhy mangna b nhi

maangun gi nahi kionk shyad tou chahta hau

dil ko bnanay wala shyd tjhy dil se nikaly ga nahin

meri bebssi tou dekh k shair b kh rhe aur ro b rhe

teri tsweer ma b hlki si udaasi mjhy brdaasht nahin

ma teri khushi mangti hun Rabb se k tere drd mitt jaien yar

lakin shyd gunahon k sbab meri dua ma b koi asar he nahin

iss shoq se yqeen se mangun gi ma tere liay hr pal dua

k mere sohnay Allah k han dhair hai magar andher nahin

Poet : Jaan e Mann

The World Bank In Pakistan

Summary:-

Pakistan has important strategic endowments and development potential. The increasing proportion of Pakistan’s youth provides the country with a potential demographic dividend and a challenge to provide adequate services and employment.

In July 2019, Pakistan entered into a 39-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. Stabilization measures under the EFF were expected to moderate aggregate demand pressures in the economy. Leading indicators suggested a slowdown in growth in the first 7-8 months of FY20[1]. The output of large-scale manufacturing (which accounts for around 50 percent of industrial output) contracted by 3.4 percent in Jul-Jan FY20. The agriculture sector, however, registered growth in the rice and livestock sub-sectors.

However, the rapid spread of the COVID-19 virus since February 2020 has brought economic activity to a near-halt. Most of the country has been placed under a partial lockdown. The closure of non-essential businesses and domestic supply chain disruptions are having a significant impact on wholesale and retail trade and transport, storage and communication, the largest sub-sectors of the services sector. The drop in domestic and global demand is also compounding the strains on the industrial sector, which is hit by both supply and demand shocks. In addition, the country’s main industrial sector – textiles and apparel – is highly exposed to COVID-19-related disruptions due to its labor-intensity.

Average inflation increased to 11.8 percent during Jul-Mar FY20 (from 6.8 percent in Jul-Mar FY19) reflecting upward adjustments in administrated prices and exchange rate depreciation pass-through. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained a tight monetary stance during this period, keeping the policy rate at 13.25 percent to dampen inflationary expectations. However, as the COVID-19 pandemic spread, it reduced the policy rate to 11.0 percent in March 2020.

The Current Account Deficit (CAD) narrowed to 1.0 percent of GDP in Jul-Feb FY20, from 3.5 percent in the same period in FY19, thanks to a 17.5 percent decline in goods imports. This, together with large multilateral disbursements and higher foreign investment flows, helped shore up gross international reserves to US$13.2 billion (as of March 27th, 2020)—or equivalent to 3.5 months of imports. However, due to global developments, foreign investors have offloaded more than half of their position in domestic securities since February 2020. The exchange rate, which had remained relatively stable through June-February FY20, depreciated by 7.3 percent in March.

In the first half of FY20, the fiscal deficit stood at 2.3 percent of GDP, compared to 2.7 percent in the first six months of FY19. The fiscal adjustment was achieved through increases in domestic revenue collections and slower growth in non-interest recurrent expenditures. However, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to put significant pressure on expenditures whereas revenue collections are expected to be negatively impacted. Pakistan’s public debt, which stood at 87.5 percent of GDP at the end of FY19, may rise as a result.

Real GDP growth is projected to contract by 1.3 percent in FY20 as domestic and global economic activity slows down sharply in the last four months of the fiscal year. The outbreak of COVID-19 will impact growth beyond FY20. Under the baseline scenario, growth will remain muted in FY21 before reaching 3.2 percent in FY22. Inflation is expected to average 11.8 percent in FY20 and to gradually decline thereafter.

The current account deficit is projected to narrow to 1.9 percent in FY20, as imports contract more than exports. Export growth is expected to remain negative in FY21 but to subsequently rebound. Similarly, imports are expected to recover slowly from FY22 on wards, as domestic industrial activities pick up. Remittances are expected to contract in FY20 and FY21, respectively, due to lower growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council economies. Increased multilateral and bilateral flows are expected to be the main financing sources over the medium-term.

The fiscal deficit is expected to remain elevated in FY20 and FY21. Revenue mobilization efforts will be negatively impacted by subdued domestic activity, while expenditures will increase to contain the spread of COVID-19 and support the economy. The fiscal deficit is expected to fall gradually by FY22 as the impact of the crisis tapers-off. However, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase and remain elevated over the medium-term, with Pakistan’s exposure to debt-related shocks remaining high.

There are considerable downside risks to the outlook. The immediate challenge for the government is to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, while minimizing economic losses and protecting the poorest. In the medium-to-long term, the government should remain focused on implementing structural reforms to boost private investment sustainably.